Many thanks to readers who have followed my articles at Christianity Today. CT just published a year-end summary of the ten most read stories about the persecuted church, and I am pleased to report my articles placed at numbers 1, 3, 6, and 10.
That the articles needed to be written in the first place involves little of pleasure, but I am glad that in most there have been moments of grace amid the suffering.
Propaganda video released the same day Justin Welby arrives in Cairo to honor the previous 21 victims.
For what it is worth, none of the articles made the overall top 20 most read list, which was dominated by US domestic trends, though some with international aspects.
As for this list, in general I do not like the word ‘persecution’ or a focus thereupon. Though these articles certainly qualify, the word risks setting Christians into an ‘us versus them’ mentality that risks violation of many Gospel principles. The struggle, says the scripture, is not against flesh and blood.
But without doubt the next mentioned ‘principalities and powers’ have employed flesh and spilled blood. I am grateful to be in a position to help tell these stories, and pray they may result in greater love both for the church around the world, and those who stand against her.
Thanks for reading — and within your power — acting accordingly.
Gathered at Cairo’s prestigious Dar al-Mudarra’at military complex in early December, 150 imams and priests heard some of Egypt’s highest religious authorities praise their participation in a three-year programme to deepen religious unity.
“Working together for the sake of Egypt – we are in great need of this slogan,” said Grand Mufti Shawki Allam, in reference to the Imam-Priest Exchange, an initiative of the Egyptian Family House. “But it is also the reality in which we live.”
The Egyptian Family House was created shortly after the 25 January, 2011 revolution against President Mubarak – in partnership between al-Azhar (Sunni Islam’s leading authority), the Coptic Orthodox Church, and Egypt’s Protestant, Catholic, and Anglican denominations. The Imam-Priest Exchange began in February 2013, as popular opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood and then-President Mohamed Morsi was coalescing throughout the country.
According to Abdel Rahman Moussa, an advisor to Grand Imam Ahmed al-Tayyib and speaking on his behalf for al-Azhar, “This scene is what we have dreamed of – a sincere expression of what Egypt is, the Egypt that God has preserved.”
“We were all wondering where Egypt was going,” said Bishop Mouneer Hanna Anis, whose Anglican church sponsored the training. “But now we celebrate the return of love and the brotherly spirit.”
Each year the Exchange brought together around 70 imams and priests from across the country. Four trainings of three days each had them live and eat together as they were encouraged towards a gradual but escalating partnership.
The themes? “Let us know each other. Let us coexist. Let us cooperate. Let us work together for the good of Egypt.”
Participants not only listened to academic lectures, but also actively toured the country. Egyptian citizens looked on astonished, but proud, taking selfies with imams and priests as they walked hand-in-hand down busy streets.
Their distinguished long robes, caps, and beards added to the gravity of ancient mosques, churches, and monasteries. Together they joined fellow citizens in celebrating the opening of the Suez Canal expansion. They rediscovered a shared heritage while exploring the Coptic, Islamic, and National Egyptian museums. And in the final session they visited practical examples of interfaith development work.
“We want to go where people have done things,” said Saleem Wassef, project manager for the Exchange. “The idea is to help them think out of the box, and consider how they can repeat these experiences back in their own communities.”
Moving from remedy to prevention
Religious leaders from the two different faiths visited each others’ places of worship.
This last marker is an important departure from the previous model of imam-priest cooperation, said Nady Labib, representing the Protestant Churches of Egypt. He criticised the “hugs and kisses” displayed in the media after incidents of sectarian tension, to present an image that “all is fine” between Muslims and Christians.
The Family House has been active in quelling sectarian tension, said Fr. Augustinos Elia, assistant head of the branch in Mallawi. But the focus now is on prevention, not remedy.
“We are removing walls and building bridges,” he said. “A certain extremism still persists in society, and we are working to educate and spread awareness.”
One of the best examples is found in Ismailia, where Sheikh Abdel Rahman and Fr. Surial have visited four schools a week for the past two years. Having never before seen such respect and friendship between an imam and a priest, the girls often cry when they see the two together, they said.
Consider also the work of Sheikh Ahmed and Fr. Boula in Menoufiya, where the “My Church, My Mosque” campaign collected money from Muslims to build a church, and from Christians to build a mosque.
Even in Delga, a community whose church was destroyed following the removal of Morsi from power, Sheikh Fayed and Fr. Ayoub have worked to bring Muslims and Christians together. Medical and sport outreaches have tried to unite the people, with youths brought to Cairo to witness the Family House in action.
Wassef said the local branches of the Family House are one of the best successes of the Imam-Priest Exchange. And those trained have gone on to help establish branches in Port Said, Alexandria, and Luxor.
“At first the participants were afraid to be involved,” he said. “But once they knew about the goals, they were convinced about the need to work together for the benefit of their communities.”
Bishop Armia, assistant general secretary for the Family House, related the story of an imam who told him he used to cross to the other side of the street if he saw a priest coming his way. Now, after spending a year together in the Exchange, he has become friends with a priest from his town.
Sheikh Muhi al-Din al-Afifi related a similar experience. Head of the Islamic Research Academy, as well as the Family House committee for religious discourse, he told those gathered of his first visit to a monastery, where he was pleasantly surprised to see such faith and activity mix for the good of Egypt.
“This project works to change the inherited teachings that have sown hatred among us,” he said. “It is the tip of the spear that confronts all manner of civil strife.”
Sincerity and continuity questioned
But not all participants were totally convinced by the project, with one Sheikh saying there was ‘not enough connection between words and actions’.
Not all participants, however, were as convinced. Some grumbled that the “religious other” was present only from obligation. Others complained that there was little contact between them once they left the training.
One leader in one branch confirmed this impression. Only 20 per cent of the roughly 100 members acted from full and sincere conviction, he said. Forty per cent came because they were assigned by their religious institution, and another 40 per cent were active for personal or political gain.
Another issue is that the Family House has not yet been able to win wide national media attention. “We are here, but no one sees us,” said Sheikh Said Shoman, a participant from the Sohag branch, who encouraged much more open mixing of imams and priests in the streets. “The problem is there is not enough connection between words and actions.”
The work is slow going, the branch leader admitted, but he is not discouraged. Their branch has held 10 seminars about national unity, and smaller meetings in youth centres and villages throughout the area. As a leader, he is frequently invited to government and civil society events as a Family House representative. But he considers it natural that cooperation between religious leaders takes time.
“Progress develops as someone first sees you, then later will talk to you, and only later might work with you,” he said. “There is a will to make the Family House work but it still needs more interaction.”
Wassef estimated that around 50 per cent of Exchange imams and priests have been active in pursuing the goals of the training. But if engaging men of religion has been hard work, convincing a sceptical public has been harder.
“Some of my colleagues in the ministry used to laugh at me, and some Christians say I am wasting my time,” he said. “But you meet some people who are ready to change. The progress is slow but sure.”
Bishop Mouneer echoed this long-term perspective, telling Exchange graduates that Egypt deserves their effort to rebuild.
“We must look not to what Egypt can give us, but what we can give Egypt and the future generations,” he said. Adding a word to their slogan, he urged them, “Always, together for the sake of Egypt. This is a beginning, not an end.”
Bless Egypt in this new year. Lead her to prosperity, lead her to justice. Lead her into common understanding of your ideals for both.
To a great degree consensus is forming, God. Presidential popularity figures remain high. A non-polarized parliament was elected. The controversies of the revolutionary period are being left behind.
But so also, some say, are its promises. Thousands of Egyptians remain in jail. The economy is faltering. Familiar accusations are leveled against security excesses.
God, your ideals have not yet come. Do not let Egypt rest content in a consensus that falls short of the best you wish for the nation.
But guard also against two dangers: The discontent that rails against any shortcoming, and the conflation of particular political vision with your will.
This year, God, help Egypt to function. Help her to reform.
Help her pay her debts. Help her feed her people. Help her navigate a treacherous regional balance.
Help her supply energy. Help her launch businesses. Help her develop true civil and political society.
Help her fight corruption. Help her end terrorism. Help her cultivate both prosperity and justice.
God, bless Egypt and her people. Give them unity, give them peace.
UAE Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Saif bin Zayed and his sons at the inauguration of Oasis Hospital’s new maternity centre. Photo: Peddle Thorp
The ruling family in the United Arab Emirates have transformed the country’s maternity facilities, thanks to a multi-million pound investment in Christian medical care.
Oasis Hospital in al-Ain, once just a mud-brick affair built at a date-palmed caravan crossing point before oil wealth modernized the area, will become the top childbirth facility in this former Trucial State.
Four members of the royal family inaugurated the new facility on 15 November this year, with hospital staff old and new.
‘This hospital may be better equipped and integrated than ninety per cent of the hospitals in the United States,’ said Dr Daryl Erickson, a missionary surgeon who served at Oasis from 1976-1985.
The expanded complex now includes 98 rooms over three floors and a state-of-the-art neo-natal intensive care unit. There are twelve delivery rooms – doubled from six – and more specialist staff.
Still present throughout the hospital are Arabic translations of the Gospel of Luke, the physician.
American missionary doctors Pat and Marian Kennedy founded the hospital in 1961, coming at the invitation of the nation’s founder, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan.
They scaled sand dunes by Land Rover in a rugged two-day trek to arrive at the desert oasis, tasked with developing modern medical care.
‘Before the hospital, thirty per cent of women died in childbirth and sixty per cent of children died before they were six years old,’ said Erickson, after whom the new surgical wing is named.
‘Immediately after delivery women had their vaginas packed with rock salt. As a result the post-partum period was incredibly painful and any subsequent labour could last up to four days because of severe scarring,’ he explained.
Honour
Among the Kennedys’ first births was Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, younger brother of Sheikh Khalid, President of the UAE.
Gertrude Dyke, author of the definitive history of Oasis Hospital, delivered babies for twenty-six years. She related to the National that Sheikh Mohamed told her, ‘If you had not come, we would not be here.’
From the beginning, Erickson said, the Kennedys were up front about their desire to share their Christian faith. The tolerance – even honour – afforded to them and the hospital by the royal family continues to this day.
Hulsey: Free care for poor migrant workers. Photo: Oasis Hospital
‘The founding doctors came as missionaries, which was allowed and accepted by the rulers of that time,’ Oasis President Dr Trey Hulsey told Lapido.
‘Because we have kept to the spirit of treating everyone and turning no one away, we are allowed to keep Bibles out for people to take if they choose.’
Oasis is part of CURE, a network of Christian hospitals in thirty countries that has assisted more than 2.5 million patients, performed more than 180,000 surgeries, and trained over 7,200 medical professionals.
The hospital provides free care worth almost £1.8 million per year, mostly to migrant workers from Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Dignity
Equal dignity to the poor, said Hulsey, is integral to the CURE slogan: Healing the sick and proclaiming the kingdom of God.
But so too is top-notch professional service to wealthy Emiratis. The hospital has twenty VIP suites fitted out with floor cushions and carpet: Emiratis prefer to sit on the floor.
‘We want people to understand they are cared for, both by us and by God,’ said Hulsey, ‘because God has cared for us first through Christ.’
Oasis hospital employs sixty doctors, about half of whom are Muslim. One-quarter are Christians of traditional missionary spirit.
They deliver three thousand babies a year, but are in need of more staff. The hospital is operating at only two-thirds capacity following the expansion.
Oasis Hospital: Better equipped than most US hospitals. Photo: CURE International
At the grand opening UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Sheikh Saif bin Zayed especially honoured the Kennedys’ two daughters, Kathleen and Nancy, thanking them publicly for their parents’ service, the nature of which he said he highlighted to all his international visitors.
Saif also acknowledged their faith, saying whether Muslim, Christian, or Jew, everyone must follow God in their own way.
Freedom
Christians represent 13 per cent of the UAE’s population, according to the Pew Research Center, drawn entirely from the migrant worker community.
The UAE constitution forbids discrimination on the basis of religion, and guarantees freedom of worship if consistent with public morals.
But according to the US Commission on International Religious Freedom, the UAE is among a number of Muslim-majority countries that make insufficient provision for individual religious freedom.
Open Doors ranks the UAE at number 49 on its list of countries showing degrees of Christian persecution. Though persecution is ‘scarce’, and there is wide freedom for non-Muslims to worship, evangelism is prohibited and the law does not recognize conversion from Islam to Christianity.
Preaching at the hospital had to cease in 1978, and the Christian bookstore was forced to close. In the 1980s, Bibles were banned from patient rooms.
But today they are available again, while the church adjacent to the hospital hosts a Bible Society of the Gulf kiosk.
Oasis Hospital recently delivered its one-hundred-thousandth baby, and certainly enjoys the favour of both citizens and government.
Coordination is now underway with a national charitable foundation to provide medical and surgical aid in Syria and Yemen.
Erickson muses: ‘I wonder if the UAE is as peaceful as it is today as a result of God’s blessing on the local people—citizens and leaders alike—because of their long-term interest in and tolerance of the Gospel.
‘I don’t know how you prove this, but just look at what the rest of the Middle East is like.’
After campaigning comes positioning. Perhaps after that will come legislating and querying. But help Egypt’s newly elected representatives to get this interim period right.
An effort is underway to draft members into a grand coalition to support the presidency of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. This would be consistent, as many campaigned on this very point. They want the Egyptian state to succeed, and believe unity between the executive and legislative branches is essential.
Others suspect an agenda to recreate the non-ideological party that surrounded former President Mubarak. Some even accuse the effort of imitating the Muslim Brotherhood tendency to exclude other voices.
But to a degree, coalitions are necessary. The constitution gives the parliament the right to approve the president’s cabinet. If not, the leading party or coalition has the right to form the government. There is currently no party with a majority.
Therefore, God, be present in all negotiations.
Weigh the motivations of leading and lesser players. Give them discernment against personal interests. Guard them against partisan manipulation. May they politic truly, but politic well.
Support the state, God. Empower just institutions, promote humble individuals.
Help Egypt’s coalitions to move, in time, from people to policies. But may the policies always be conscious of the people.
And soon, regardless of how coalitions emerge, inspire parliament to accomplish its constitutional mandate. Give wisdom in the reviewing of law. Give courage in the accounting of government.
God, with greater stability comes greater responsibility. Fulfill Egypt’s promise, and the many promises she has made. Position her – and her representatives – to do good to many.
No matter the policy or pattern of behavior, life is unique. Each person is responsible for his or her own actions, no matter the repercussions on all.
But all actions have consequences, determine policies, and establish patterns. Help Egypt navigate through the exception and the general…
… as the Coptic pope visits Jerusalem in violation of a decades old decision.
… as the president promises to discipline policemen who have tortured and killed citizens.
… as a local bar fight explodes and kills sixteen.
… as a local woman somewhere gives birth to the 98 millionth Egyptian.
Each incident, God, is of exceptional importance. Yet each one begs meaning larger than itself. Help Egypt assign it correctly.
The pope went to attend a funeral and says the visit carries no change in commitment to Palestine.
The president assures of the importance of good conduct and insists violations are isolated.
For all their bravado, Egyptians rarely fight and this tragedy bears no marks of terrorism.
For all their uniqueness, that is a lot of Egyptians along an overpopulated stretch of river.
Each meaning, God, is fiercely contested. Yet each one begs a further prayer. Help Egypt look to you and not to punditry.
Give Egypt peace with an Israel that conforms to your righteousness. May Copts and Muslims together take pilgrimage hand in hand.
Give Egypt confidence in a police force that acts with complete professionalism. May old patterns be overturned and your justice enforced.
Give Egypt respite from more tales of woe. May all personal conduct be governed by your mercy and all terrorism cease.
Give Egypt sufficient prosperity to receive and accommodate her many millions. May each one experience your particular grace.
God, for all Egypt has experienced in history many believe she is an exceptional recipient of your protection and favor. May this be true, but not particular. Similarly guard each nation of the region, with many now so deeply in need.
Settle the issues of societal reach, but not at the expense of the individual. Honor the uniqueness of every Egyptian, but not at the expense of society. Keep Egypt in balance, reestablish her harmony.
May policy and personhood meet, and may it not be exceptional. Bless Egypt, God, and make her whole.
List of Churches within the Evangelical Church of Abu Dhabi
Christianity Today recently interviewed me about my September article on the churches of the Persian/Arabian Gulf.
There are about 2.3 million Christians in the Arabian Peninsula—more than nearly 100 countries can claim. What does that look like on the ground? Christianity Today‘s Middle East correspondent Jayson Casper recently spoke with assistant editor Morgan Lee on his fascinating story on why Christianity is surging in the heart of Islam. In the interview, Casper explains why Gulf States want churches, how globalization affects religious freedom in the region, and what most surprises him about the region’s Christianity.
As judged by the Facebook shares (over 6,000), this story surprised many of our readers. To what extent did you “stumble” on this story?
The story was suggested by CT’s News Editor Jeremy Weber, but I was eager to take it on. I was aware that there were churches in the region for a long time, but always curious about what local Christianity looked like.
Would the number of churches come as a surprise to those who live in the Gulf?
As far as the Gulf is concerned, the presence of churches is well known. If one is nonreligious, they would not necessarily be spotted, but anyone looking can find them easily. Many churches have an active web presence.
Christian leaders in the United Arab Emirates, as well as a high ranking member of the royal family, told me the government wants to do all it can to facilitate the worship of Christian foreign workers. They value the wholeness the church can provide.
Otherwise they deal with the normal vices found in Western society but out of place in the Gulf, and on top of it suffer from loss of productivity when workers suffer loneliness and depression.
What was hard about doing the reporting for this piece?
Balancing the good news—foreign Christians have been largely welcome to the country—with the reality that this freedom does not extend to Gulf citizens. Overwhelmingly, Christian leaders wanted to accentuate their appreciation to the authorities.
But there was also a tenor among some — off the record — that a glowing portrayal would not be right. The focus of the story is to help correct the wide assumption among many Western Christians that the Islam of the Arabian Peninsula is intolerant to Christianity in general. But getting the right tone of ‘yes-but’ was not easy.
What did you find most surprising in your own reporting?
The physical size of the church buildings, how they are part of the landscape of the community and not hidden away as eyesores. There is money in the Gulf, so everything is big. But while I knew that Christianity existed within a level of tolerance, I had no idea about the level of normalcy these buildings imply. (See pictures here.)
What’s something you wish you could have included in the final draft that didn’t make its way in?
There were several charming stories of interactions normal Christians had with their neighbors. A Sunday School teacher. A military instructor. An IT manager. Each one came for a job, but was living their Christian life—and often speaking of it—in winsome ways.
I also heard about churches organizing service trips into the migrant labor camps, and some of the difficulties experienced by the majority Asian population. Not all of these stories made it into the article, but they served to confirm what leading sources conveyed.
In the article you write, “Thanks also to global capitalism, that freedom is not going away.” To what extent do you think this freedom will expand?
It is difficult to say. Because the nations of the Gulf are so young and their economies are expanding so rapidly, many sources told me that the authorities sort of make it up as they go along.
Concerning the churches, this means there is often no set of regulations that can be followed in a clear cut manner. So much depends upon decisions of higher-ups that come through relationship more than bureaucracy. They prefer to deal with a head of denomination and let them regulate affairs internally. So one measure of expanding freedom can be seen if this freedom simply gets written down into law.
Another measure of freedom, perhaps, exists in comparison between the Gulf States and Europe, both of which have received many migrants over the past decades. Europe has extended citizen rights to many, while the Gulf does not. Will the Gulf ever offer a similar opportunity? If so, can they accept Christians as citizens as opposed to guest workers?
Globalization and multicultural realities often produce a liberalizing effect, even as they can spark backlash. Over time will these realities fundamentally change Gulf attitudes? It is a fascinating possibility to observe.
[Note: Both Bahrain and Kuwait have a tiny number of Christian citizens originally from other Arab countries.]
In the article you write “that Gulf churches exist at all stems from relationships, not economics or law.” Who are those relationships open to? In other words, is it only between Arab men and Western white men? Or are these accessible regardless of ethnic background or gender?
In the article, that sentence meant the origin and continuance of the churches is due to the very specific relationship between Christian leaders and the ruling authorities. In terms of relations between guest workers and Gulf citizens, I think the general culture does not facilitate mixing.
In many settings the migrant workers are the majority, and many citizens do not work except in management at the level of “boss.” This would include the vast sector of domestic labor, which I did not sufficiently encounter. Non-Western migrants also complained about a level of hierarchy, with increasing discrimination felt by the darker of skin and the lower of economic level.
In your observation, how has the Western Protestant church been affected by Gulf State culture?
Most leaders celebrated a far greater level of diversity than would be experienced by most Christians in America. They would say that our congregation is a ‘taste of heaven’ as they listed the number of nationalities and languages worshiping together. This is certainly part of Gulf culture stemming from economic realities—not necessarily the Arab Muslim culture they maintain among themselves, though in some settings it is also seen here.
Morgan Lee is assistant editor of Christianity Today.
Congratulations to the American University in Cairo for their placement in this year’s QS World University Rankings. Measuring only the top 700 universities in the world, AUC came in at number 345. This is tops in Egypt, with the only other measured institution being the acclaimed Cairo University in the 500-550 range.
It is also the fourth highest ranked African university, behind three from South Africa. MIT, Harvard, and the UK’s Cambridge occupy the top spots worldwide.
But according to the AUC press release, the school scored higher than several prestigious US institutions:
In the 2015 – 2016 QS World University Rankings, AUC ranks ahead of several U.S. universities that are also private, mid-size, four-year liberal arts institutions delivering a curriculum comparable to AUC, including Brandeis University, Wake Forest University, Lehigh University, College of William & Mary and Southern Methodist University.
A while ago I visited the new AUC campus, which is quite a distance from its historic Tahrir Square location, where it still maintains administrative offices, operates a bookstore, and hosts educational and cultural events. Tahrir is easily accessible by metro, whereas students must now commute over an hour to get to class. But a high-quality bus runs on set schedule, mirroring the high-quality campus, all funded by high tuition far outpacing any fees charged by Egyptian private universities.
(Click here for a recent post on fees charged by private high schools operating in Egypt.)
Please enjoy the pictures below:
Upon arriving by bus at the university gatesShowing the extent of campus groundsA view from the groundsThough some female students wear hijab, a great number did not, far more than the normal percentage in EgyptThe university provides plenty of open space to sit, relax, and mix — also somewhat unusual between genders in EgyptThere is also a sizable foreign population at AUCBesides modern buildings, AUC has also created a modern oasisBut here the grass is much more patchy — imagine the water necessary to create green open space on the outskirts of a desertA typical and well equipped classroomBut before classes begin, students linger in the main square signing up for different student groupsAfterwards, they will visit this very familiar university siteFinally, no campus is complete without insignia available to purchase and wear
Again, congratulations to AUC on their ranking. Click here for the university website and explore on your own. Perhaps some might even come and enroll. Welcome.
It has been a long road, but it is almost over. But then the real journey begins.
Following the ouster of Morsi, Egypt has ratified a constitution, elected a president, and now stands ready to seat a parliament.
The end has not been easy, nor celebrated. Terrorists have killed candidates and assassinated judges. Turnout has been low.
Many still oppose the process. Many are disinterested. Many are more concerned over food and security. But millions have voted, finding either meaning or benefit.
Turn them all, God, to build their society. If the road has been paved, may they walk upon it.
For parliament in particular, may the final selections be worthy. May the whole represent the people, and hold accountable the government.
And with democratic institutions complete, may Egypt function democratically. May violence cease; may economy grow. May the people be free to run their country well.
God, in the months and years to come, give Egypt precious stability. Give her good governance. Give her a will to address root issues. Give her a hope of compounding success.
This journey, God, does not end. May the map forward be clear, and easier to follow.
Abu Osama al-Masry, blurred in a Wilayat Sinai propaganda video; from SITE Intel Group
Who downed Russian airline flight 9286 as it left tourist resort Sharm el-Sheikh in October, killing all 224 on board?
Russian officials have confirmed a bomb brought down the plane, while Whitehall has labelled shadowy leader of the new ISIS affiliate Wilayat Sinai – Abu Osama al-Masry – ‘a person of interest’ in on-going investigations. Egypt has yet to release details from their investigation.
‘Foreign tourists, workers, and troops in Egypt are at greater risk than ever’, wrote Zach Gold in Egypt Source.
‘Whether [WS] was responsible or made an opportunistic claim, the group’s willingness to even rhetorically target foreign interests in Egypt is another dangerous marker in a pattern of threats’, he added.
A former Azhar student and clothing importer Abu Osama al-Masry claimed responsibility on behalf of Wilayat Sinai. ‘They were shocked by a people who sought the hereafter, loved death, and had a thirst for blood’, he said.
‘We will inherit your soil, homes, wealth, and capture your women! This is Allah’s promise’.
Jurisprudence
‘Eloquent in quoting the Qur’an’: Abu Osama al-Masry, blurred in propaganda video. Photo: SITE Intel Group
Al-Masry, a nom-de-guerre indicating he is Egyptian, is said to have been born in northern Sinai but grew up in Sharqiya in the eastern Nile Delta.
The 42-year-old former student at the Muslim world’s most prestigious seat of learning, al-Azhar in Cairo, al-Masry is said to be ‘well versed in Islamic jurisprudence’ and ‘eloquent in quoting the Quran’.
Wilayat Sinai, meaning ‘the province of Sinai’, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State on 10 November, 2014.
It was previously known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (ABM), translated roughly as ‘Supporters of Jerusalem’ – implying the same apocalyptic zeal as IS.
Lapido Media nailed this affiliation a year ago – and the fact of the reluctance of the West to believe it amid the complexity of Egyptian culture and the prevalence of ‘conspiracy theories’.
On 5 November 2014, we wrote: ‘Ali expects the “Supporters of Jerusalem” – a home-grown terrorist outfit operating out of Sinai – to soon announce their allegiance to ISIS. Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, he said, was an associate of Abu Musad al-Zarqawi in the Islamic State of Iraq and believed to be killed by US forces in 2010.
‘But some evidence suggests he is still alive and operating out of the Sinai with the Supporters of Jerusalem,’ Ali said.
Shifting
If the Russian airline attack is confirmed, it will not have been the first time Wilayat Sinai has targeted foreigners.
Strategy, however, is shifting from attacking tourism in Egypt as part of an economic war, to attacking tourists in retaliation for their nation’s policies.
In February 2014 the group killed two South Koreans and an Egyptian driver in a bus traveling from St Catherine’s Monastery in the Sinai.
They also claimed responsibility for the hideous executions of American oil worker William Henderson in August 2014, and the Croatian Tomislav Salopek in August 2015.
Wilayat Sinai’s fighting force is estimated between a low of one to two thousand militants, and as high as five to twelve thousand.
The sparse population of North Sinai is approximately 435,000, or forty per square mile.
Unlike the Islamic State, WS’s composition is mostly local, consisting of veteran jihadists, disaffected Bedouin, and disillusioned youth. Some foreign fighters come from Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Syria, and WS have issued a call for more.
Egypt has accused Turkey of providing support for Wilayat Sinai, posting names and pictures of alleged operatives they have captured.
Wilayat Sinai also benefits from members who previously served in the Egyptian military, before defecting or being expelled.
Walid Badr, a former major in the army, was the suicide bomber in the September 2013 assassination attempt on the interior minister. One month later former officers Emad Abdel Halim and Hisham Ashmawi led an assault on a checkpoint in Sinai killing 31 people.
History
WS, under its original guise of Ansar Beit al-Maqdis was formed sometime in 2011 in response to the Egyptian revolution of 25 January.
Egyptian security says ABM breathed new life into existing bands of militants such as al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad, which had conducted operations against tourism hotels in Sinai in 2004, 2005, and 2006.
After formally merging, ABM originally targeted Israel, launching a few cross-border attacks and several acts of sabotage against the Egypt-Israeli gas pipeline.
President Mohamed Morsi authorised military action against ABM after it killed 16 border guards in August 2012. But he is also understood to have preferred negotiation and tried to limit their influence through dialogue with other Sinai parties.
After Morsi’s removal from office on 3 July, 2013, ABM shifted focus and deliberately targeted Egyptian security forces.
Abu Osama al-Masry deemed Morsi an apostate and equated democracy with atheism – a typical militant Islamist trope.
But ABM sought to take advantage of the military-versus-Muslim Brotherhood conflict to paint itself as the defender of Muslims.
Al-Qa’eda
A leaked Egyptian security document from February 2015 accused the Muslim Brotherhood of working with Al-Qa’eda to send three thousand fighters to the Sinai.
Morsi, like the transitional military council before him, released jihadis from prison.
But an Egyptian researcher says that while he permitted militants a degree of operation, he did not nurture them as a ‘last resort’ to protect his office.
In addition to the acts of terrorism listed above, ABM has been a leading force in a long list of attacks in Sinai and the Egyptian mainland.
The small Christian population of roughly 650 families in the Sinai have also suffered at their hands. Many have relocated, though local Muslims have promised to protect them.
Logo of Wilayat Sinai
Imitating
Four hundred attacks killing seven hundred soldiers: Wilayat Sinai. Photo: SITE Intel Group
Targeting Christians is only one of the ways Wilayat Sinai is imitating the Islamic State.
Mixing terror and piety, they have beheaded opponents and moved against drug trafficking. They have appealed to the sympathy of Bedouin tribes and distributed money to those whose homes have been destroyed in the conflict.
But Wilayat Sinai has so far failed to reproduce the primary marker of the Islamic State – territorial acquisition. They hide out in the desert, mix with the people, plant roadside bombs, and adopt guerilla tactics, but have failed to claim and hold land.
It has not been for want of trying.
Wilayat Sinai has led over four hundred attacks on security forces between 2012 and 2015, killing an estimated seven hundred soldiers.
On 1 July, 2015 militants led a full-day assault on the city of Sheikh Zuweid, following multiple coordinated attacks on surrounding checkpoints. The effort failed when the military employed F-16s in the city’s defense.
Reporting on Sinai is difficult as the government has criminalised publication of information that contradicts official statements.
One month ago on 22 October, an army spokesman declared ‘full control’ over the Sinai, but terror attacks continue.
An anonymous officer said failings stemmed from unfamiliar terrain and a scorched-earth policy that alienated the population. There are alsoconflictingreports as to whether local tribes are joining the fight or just watching idly by.
But an anonymous militant admitted the military have severely restricted their operations, and the closing of tunnels on the Gaza border has dried up the weapon supply.
Europe
Human Rights Watch has criticised the government over the creation of a buffer zone meant to destroy the network of tunnels long exploited by traffickers and terrorists alike. Between July 2013 and August 2015 HRW reported the destruction of at least 3,255 homes and properties.
Israel claims that Hamas is aiding Wilayat Sinai, though leaders deny any connection to this ‘black extremism’.
But on Egypt’s Western border the Islamic State has been more successful in setting up a franchise. They call Libya ‘the strategic gateway’, noting its proximity to Egypt, Tunisia, African nations of the Sahel, and Europe.
In spring 2014 Libyans in Syria returned to Derna near Benghazi and pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Fledgling states have been created for each of Libya’s three traditional regions: Cyrenaica, Tripoli, and the Fezzan.
This has sparked terrorist activity in Egypt’s Western Desert as well. In July 2014 ABM claimed responsibility for an attack in Farafra that killed 22 soldiers. Last month in pursuit of terrorist targets, the military accidentally killed eight Mexican tourists in the Bahariya oasis.
Splits
The terrorism network in Egypt is fluid. Abu Osama al-Masry indicated his support for the Islamic State as early as 30 June, 2014, praying for them to conquer Baghdad. By September reports of co-operation and training emerged.
But by November the eventual pledge of allegiance was disputed, with veterans said to support Al-Qa’eda, yet with the youth vote winning out.
Since then splinter groups have formed, though there is no evidence of direct conflict. Jihadi Ribat was created in December 2014, eschewing support for Islamic State claims to the caliphate. The aforementioned former military officer Ashmawi split with others in July 2015 to formal-Murabitoon.
Ajnad Misr declared its intention to focus on attacks against security personnel in Cairo, in January 2014. It has been implicated in over 25 attacks, but focuses on Egypt rather than a global cause.
There even appears to be diversity within the Islamic State network. Recent attacks on the Italian Consulate in Cairo and on a security directorate in Shubra el-Kheima were claimed by Islamic State in Egypt, not Wilayat Sinai.
The Egyptian government claims progress in the fight against terrorism, and last week killed Ashraf el-Gharably, reportedly a top commander in Wilayat Sinai. The UK has offered the support of special forces to help kill or capture Abu Osama al-Masry.
The British government declared Wilayat Sinai, then ABM, a terrorist entity in April 2014.
‘Egypt deserves support, not punishment,’ Anglican Bishop of Egypt Mouneer Hanna Anis told Lapido Media, critical of Russian and British decisions to restrict air travel to Egypt estimated to cost the nation nearly £185 million per month.
‘My prayer is to see the international community working together to fight terrorism.’
Yesterday I received the unexpected news that Ezzat al-Salamony died … back in August. He was a leader in al-Gama’a al-Islamiya (the Islamic Group), designated a terrorist entity by the United States. Over the past few years I was able to interview him a couple of times.
According to al-Shuruk, Salamony died in the Tora Prison hospital, from an intestinal blockage. He had been jailed as part of the ‘Alliance to Support Legitimacy’ case.
Here is a picture of Salamony demonstrating in support of former President Morsi, proudly wearing a Rabaa sign.
(from al-Shuruk)
Originally from Sohag in Upper Egypt, Salamony studied at al-Azhar Univerisity, graduating with a BA in Commerce. He joined the Islamic Group in 1979, served on its Shura Council in Cairo, and preached in mosques throughout the city, unaffiliated with the Ministry of Endowments.
He was married with three daughters. I do not know his age, though his youngest daughter was in college at the time.
As Salamony recounted, his first arrest came at the hand of President Sadat in 1981, lasting for a year and a half. Jailed repeatedly thereafter for short periods of time, he spent fifteen years in prison under President Mubarak, finally released in January 2006.
Salamony stated he was never involved in violence, though he admitted members of the Islamic Group committed ‘mistakes’ throughout this period. But on the whole he defended their record, stating they were much maligned by the regime and that most violence was defensive.
Our conversations ranged over many topics, including the history of the Islamic Group, the practice of hisba (commanding right and forbidding wrong), Islamist figures Morsi released from prison, the Innocence of Muslims film, and the Blind Sheikh, Omar Abdel Rahman.
I always found Salamony to be friendly, engaging, and eager to give a correct impression about Islam and the Islamic Group. Given his appearance and reputation, I was surprised he always arranged our meetings in a popular and upscale Nile River meeting area administered by the Egyptian military. He appeared to be a member, and we drank tea together.
I do not know if he was involved in violence following the fall of Morsi, though he certainly opposed what he considered to be a coup. We lost contact after this period.
But I was somewhat surprised also to find him prior to Morsi’s fall at a Salafi-Jihadi demonstration outside the French Embassy. He took the microphone and shouted:
“We tell these grandchildren of the Crusaders, we are the grandchildren of Saladin.”
“It is not right for the fields of battle to be in our lands, we must carry the battle into theirs.”
“We have the duty of jihad.”
Among the many chants that day was this, adapting the January 25 revolutionary cry: Al-Shaab, Ureed, Khilafa min Jadeed
“The people want a new caliphate.”
It was difficult to reconcile the peaceful, friendly character I encountered in the cafe with this one angrily shouting before a crowd. I understood that whatever kind of preacher he was, whether he employed violence or not, both then and now he was certainly a threat to the state.
Even so, his explanations of jihad and hisba were always nuanced, though his commitment to the eventual worldwide application of sharia was clear. I cannot imagine he would be in support of the current claimant to the caliphate, but I cannot be sure.
And now he is dead, so I cannot know.
The three years from January 25 to the last throes of popular pro-Rabaa resistance against President Sisi were a very strange time in Egypt. All constraints were thrown off, and every activist element of society took full advantage of the freedom available.
So it is hard to look back and evaluate Ezzat al-Salamony. Was he a long misunderstood Islamist finally anticipating success? Was he a conman deceiving a naive American into sympathy?
God – and likely the Egyptian intelligence – only knows, and now he will judge. May Ezzat al-Salamony rest in peace.
Double standards are human nature, but seem also to be evident among some of Egypt’s journalists. Consider these two articles from AhramOnline.
Two weeks ago President Sisi made a speech in which he criticized the media:
“I heard a media personality saying that the president was holding talks with representatives of foreign companies while Alexandria was sinking. Speaking like that is totally unacceptable. We can’t deal with our problems this way,” he said, referring to TV host Khaled Abu Bakr who criticised him during the flooding in Alexandria.
But the syndicate held its ground, and responded:
“Constructive criticism is the way to build a state with justice and freedom regardless of how strong it is or its nature or the person who is being criticised,” a statement issued by the syndicate read.
All well and good. But consider the syndicate’s reaction when a member receives apparent ‘constructive criticism’:
Egypt’s Press Syndicate announced on Monday its solidarity with the Chamber of Audiovisual Media Industry’s (CAMI) decision to ban lawyer and Zamalek Club chairman Mortada Mansour from appearing on its TV channels.
“We call on all journalists who are members of the syndicate to boycott any pressers held by Mansour as well as not report on any of his statements,” the syndicate said in a statement.
There is a history here, of course:
The Press Syndicate’s statement also announced its solidarity with CBC “especially since Mansour has returned to attacking journalists and media personalities.”
For his part, Mansour decided late Monday to cancel the membership of several prominent journalists at Zamalek Sport’s Club in response to the CAMI and Press Syndicate decision.
Mansour is certainly a firebrand, not averse to making controversial and often ill-founded statements. But what was his concern in this case?
Mansour had accused El-Hadidy of intentionally not giving a voice to his son Ahmed Mortada Mansour while he was running for parliament last month.
Mansour claimed that his son, now an MP, wanted to make a phone call on El-Hadidy’s show, which she refused while at the same time hosting his rival in the electoral race, Amr El-Shobaki.
At issue, of course, is whether or not the accusation is true. The article gives no indication either way.
But it appears contradictory for the syndicate to insist to the president on the right of free and open coverage, including criticism, when it calls for a media blackout against one who criticism them.
Russia is a strange ally. The week begins with the declaration her airliner was brought down by a bomb. It ends with agreement to build a nuclear reactor.
Help Egypt in the back and forth. Negotiate the give and take.
Egypt is maintaining caution in making any pronouncements on terrorism, waiting until the commission concludes. Russia had been with them, then with the UK stopped the tourist flow.
Is it pressure politics or necessary precaution? Rebuke Egypt if she is playing games. Protect Egypt if others are.
But rebuild the tourist sector, God, and with it Egypt’s professional reputation. Help her standardize operations and keep all safe. Thwart those intent on causing her harm.
And may building a reactor result only in good.
God, honor Egypt with the energy she needs. With nuclear comes risk, and maybe temptation. All assurances are given that intentions are peaceful. There is so much to gain, so much to go wrong.
Keep Egypt safe from error. Guard against negligence. Handle waste. Hinder sabotage.
Between now and completion, make Egypt ready.
In relationship with Russia, may Egypt both benefit and avoid entanglement. In all international affairs, help her stay sovereign. Help her do right.
May Egypt neither give nor take, God. May she bless. May she experience your example, and imitate.
Last week I highlighted a poor op-ed from the Washington Post. This article from the New York Times is better, but its headline is well, dubious.
Egyptians do thrive on conspiracy theory, though they should be accorded a degree of sympathy given the troubles and outside influences on their region.
Now, writing a headline is almost more art than journalism, sometimes crossing the line into marketing. The author is forgiven, and may not have had say in the final wording.
But the body of the article does not quote one single average citizen to make its point. It opens with President Sisi urging Egyptians to even go without food if necessary in the face of threats. Then the closest it comes to demonstrating popular rejection of the message is this:
After Mr. Sisi’s bellicose talk of going without food, “people are just making fun of him,” said Hisham Kassem, a veteran Egyptian journalist sympathetic to the president. “I am disappointed.”
Hisham Kassem is an important voice. As a journalist he should be expected to have his ear on the street. The author does well to quote him, and builds a case against the Egyptian habit of resorting to conspiracy.
Unfortunately, other voices quoted are from influential Egyptians outside of the country. They are critics of the regime, and some have fled for their safety. Their voices are also important, but they are not well placed to demonstrate the popular reception of government statements.
The article also quotes media figures in Egypt, and even an ordinary citizen, who express criticism of the regime:
During parliamentary elections, one pro-government talk show stunned viewers by broadcasting a call from a woman who said her disappointment with Mr. Sisi had kept her from the polls. She cited a much-hyped economic conference hosted by the president that failed to bolster growth, and an expansion project billed as a “new” Suez Canal, which had resulted in a decline in toll revenue. “I am sorry, but we are kidding ourselves,” she said. “I feel cheated.”
And it ends with a powerful statement from a prominent broadcaster who chastised the recourse to conspiracy and urged Egypt to take responsibility for itself:
Lamees el-Hadidi, one of the most popular pro-government talk show hosts, said in a broadcast that the government was compounding the economic pain from the plane crash by scaring away investors with the detentions of a prominent investigative journalist, Hossam Bahgat, and a newspaper owner, Salah Diab.
“If I am now in a very difficult situation with tourism and a foreign plot, do I need to make another problem with investments and another problem with freedoms?” she asked. “We don’t need a foreign conspiracy. We are the conspiracy itself. We conspire against ourselves!”
But these voices concern a popular discontent over the economy and to a lesser degree, over rights and freedoms. These are present, but they do not speak to a ‘dubious’ attitude towards either the state narrative or the conspiracies that swirl around.
I would say the great majority of Egyptians believe that outside forces are out to get them. And this attitude is shared equally by pro- and anti- regime.
And they have good reason. Right after the Russian airline crash, when early speculation imagined a terrorist missile, the UK’s Daily Mail published a story about a British tourist airliner having to take evasive maneuvers to avoid a similar fate.
Besides enraging the Egyptian public, this article was – to use a British expression – rubbished by the UK government:
UK’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond described on Sunday the Daily Mail’s allegations that a British passenger plane “had been seconds” from being struck by an Egyptian rocket last August as a “red herring.”
I have no explanation for the article, but it came amid a media frenzy that has now resulted in the restriction of UK and Russian flights to Egypt, crippling the tourist industry. Already struggling for foreign currency, this crisis is estimated to lose revenue of $280 million per month.
As Salama Moussa has repeatedlywritten, Egypt must face up to its self-inflicted wounds and take responsibility for itself. Foreign nations can help.
Foreign media has a role to play as well, and the power of shaming – though not appreciated in the Middle East – can be strong. The New York Times article describes well much of what is happening in Egypt.
But it would do better with a proper headline, especially one that is better documented. Perhaps nothing the author could have done would have made a difference, but the result among Egyptians is that this is just one more example of Western media misrepresenting it.
And sadly, they are not short of evidence that can be similarly construed.
Western press jumps on Egypt and local press scowls back.
A local anchor demands the president keep the state accountable gets herself suspended.
A local investigative journalist spends 48 hours in military detention.
A local media magnate has his assets frozen under a cocktail of unclear charges.
Western press paints a crisis and local press cries conspiracy.
Each case, God, deserves its own nuance. And each case reminds of the importance of journalism. Help Egypt, and the West, to get it right.
The press has power, let it be used for good. It shapes opinion, let it reveal reality. It shines a light, let it expose wrongdoing. It levels critique, let it hold all accountable.
It is part of society, let it be held accountable.
Cairoscene recently published a list of the seven most expensive schools in Egypt, with a picture of each. Here is the summary, with all figures in American dollars, per year:
Cairo American College – $22,900
American International School in Egypt – $10,300
British International School in Cairo – $9,285
Modern English School – $8,855
El Alsson – $7,900
The International Schools of Choueifat – $7,450
Canadian International School – $6,990
One of Egypt’s deepest problems is its education system. Schools are overcrowded; teachers are underpaid. Many parents will spend much of their income on tutors to make up for the deficiency and ensure their children can pass exams.
But wealthier Egyptians can sidestep the system entirely, opting for high priced foreign curriculum. Many of these schools also employ international teachers, and pay them accordingly. Expat families also populate these schools, and Egyptian parents are thankful for the all-English education and interaction with foreign speakers.
To avoid government education there are also less expensive options for Egyptians. There is a system of ‘languages’ schools, private institutions that use a government curriculum in Arabic for the humanities and English for the sciences. They can cost several hundred to a couple thousand dollars per year, and are generally all-Egyptian.
There is also a system of religious schools, mostly Catholic, open to all Egyptians and also using the national curriculum. They tend to have a strong reputation for education and discipline, teach French or English alongside Arabic, and can cost significantly less.
The new constitution mandates a percentage increase in overall budget expenditure for education. Hopefully in time it has an effect and gives a solid foundation to all Egyptians, not just those who can pay for it.
(from Egyptian Streets, sharing a screenshot from the Washington Post)
The downing of a Russian tourist plane over Egypt’s Sinai has stirred the emotions of many. An editorial is allowed greater range of expression than that expected of sober journalism, but this analysis by the Washington Post is not only frightfully early, but incredibly rude:
The state media controlled by Messrs. Putin and Sissi have a nasty habit of blaming all disasters on the United States, no matter how far-fetched the theory required. So we won’t be surprised if Russians and Egyptians are told the CIA is somehow responsible for the tragedy in the Sinai. Those seeking a more rational conclusion must consider this somber point: The Egyptian and Russian regimes are far less adept at fighting terrorism than they are at lying.
The above is their conclusion, even though the authors admitted neither Putin nor Sisi have ruled out terrorism. In fact the editorial earlier stated:
As U.S. officials underlined, there are strong indications but so far no conclusive evidence that the plane was bombed.
The Washington Post story caused the independent grassroots publication Egyptian Streets to publish its own editorial demanding an apology:
I find this editorial one of the most sickening pieces I’ve read in my life. The Post, walking the line of most of the western media, believes it has such a high moral stance that it can pass on judgements about a government that lost 224 of its citizens in a plane crash, and another that will suffer severe consequences in its tourism industry due to it. Instead of showing solidarity and support for a country that is struggling to get back on its feet, the western media seems almost cheerful that this accident took place. They are taking the opportunity to politicize the misery, in an attempt to undermine the Egyptian and Russian governments – falling so low as to accuse them of being liars.
The author is clear the Egyptian government has many failings, but that it has indeed made great gains against terrorism. And if the Post wishes to chastise a nation for falsehood in connection with terrorism, it has a far better target:
Under the pretext of the war on terror, the United States and the United Kingdom occupied Iraq with no international mandate, hung its president, dissolved its ruling party, fragmented its military and shed millions of innocent Iraqi lives. The United States government lied about Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass destruction – and no US or UK official has been held accountable for this lie until today. Besides the destruction of the Iraqi State and the killing of over a million innocent civilians, the invasion has also fueled the creation of the very terrorists Egypt is fighting today.
So are the ‘locals’ quick to scapegoat anyone but themselves?
Egyptians are not hysterical people who would continuously blame all of their problems on the United States or the CIA, as the Post alleges. Egyptians have legitimate reasons to be wary of American foreign policy in the region, as they are suffering its catastrophic repercussions today.
I don’t know what is taking place behind the scenes. But the Egyptian government has stated that Western governments have not shared the intelligence being mentioned in the press. Is this also Egyptian blustering? If not, then why is critical evidence being released to the public before going to the sovereign nations responsible to sort out this tragedy? The inquiry the Post labels as stonewalling also includes Irish and French experts. Are these in on it also? Why the rush to judgment?
Of course, about the only good reason would be that they did share it, and Egypt still obfuscates. If it was a bomb, and if the governments are more concerned about their shelf-life than their citizens, countless lives of foreign vacationers could still be at stake. If Egypt was to bury its head in the sand, the media slap in the face might be needed. After all, neither Egypt nor Russia have the best record of transparency.
But such rudeness from a respectable publication?
To start with, it is beyond doubt that the Egyptian government has its flaws in managing the economy, its overflowing and corrupt bureaucracy, and its lack of respect for human rights. But things have come to a point where the western media needs to be put in its proper place.
That place is to report, to investigate, and to hold accountable. That day may come for Sisi’s and Putin’s handling of this tragedy. But until then, take care before calling someone a liar. And show respect to a nation in crisis.
A week later, still not enough is known. What caused the Russian airliner to fall from the sky?
A joint Egyptian-Russian team has been studying debris and black boxes, but has yet to issue a final report.
But ISIS’s affiliate in the Sinai claimed – twice – that it brought down the plane, though it will withhold specifics until a time of its choosing.
And officials in the US and UK have stated that an onboard bomb is the most likely cause, garnished from intelligence gained in online chatter.
Since then tourists are being evacuated, airlines are changing flight paths, vacationers are being warned, and Egypt is growing angry. The damage to her tourist industry is immeasurable, already in a climate of economic stress.
God, make sense of it all soon.
May the truth be known. May precautions be taken. May all stay safe. May they vacation in peace.
But God, why are nations not cooperating? Are Egypt and Russia dragging their feet, afraid to confirm a terrorist act? Are the US and UK leaking suspicion for political pressure?
Comfort the families of those who have died. Facilitate the return of tourists who wish. Help experts share intel and information. Keep a bad situation from becoming worse.
God, responsible or not for this tragedy, root out the terrorism that claims and rejoices.
But God, settle everyone’s spirits. Let neither fear nor frustration influence sound judgment. Grant Egypt wisdom and leadership to guide through this crisis.
May all be known transparently. May all be safer in the end.
Writing for Carnegie, Mukhtar Awad writes a long but thorough history of Islamist radicalization since the movement to oust Morsi as president. Towards the end he issues a warning that might not be on everyone’s radar:
The eventual return of Egypt’s many itinerant jihadists—probably several thousand—is another factor that will likely increase jihadists’ recruitment of Islamist youth and the possibility that nonjihadi violent groups embedded in the Egyptian mainland will turn into active cells of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. There is a precedent for this. When Egyptian fighters returned from jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s and 1990s, their actions precipitated the bloodiest years of the previous insurgency.
The brutal and successful Islamic State has inspired many young Islamists to wage jihad, particularly after its conquests in Iraq and Syria and its infliction of significant casualties on the ranks of the Egyptian military. An increasing number of Islamists have joined its ranks, and others have fought under the banner of jihadi groups in Libya. Al-Qaeda also remains a popular touchstone among those who reject the Islamic State’s claim to the caliphate and its gross barbarity. Its branch in Syria, the Nusra Front, is another successful model in the view of young Islamists, and some Egyptians have traveled to join its ranks.
Many Egyptian jihadists who left in the 1980s stayed overseas to fight in regions like the Arab Maghreb—one estimate by a pro-government center run by a retired senior officer puts the number at anywhere between 8,000 and 10,000 Egyptians, though these numbers could not be independently verified.47 Egyptian authorities claim that at least 3,000 Egyptians have traveled to join the Syrian jihad since 2012, a number that peaked during Morsi’s presidency.48 This number is also impossible to verify, but an Egyptian Islamic State fighter based in Syria interviewed for this paper confirmed that the number is likely close to several thousand.
As escalating as Russia’s intervention in Syria has been, having them at the table could ironically serve as a basis for an eventual political solution. Far too much blood has been shed to offer even the faintest praise to anyone, but at least there is coordination among the major powers, including efforts to involve Turkey and Saudi Arabia as well.
If peace can eventually take hold, where will all the foreign fighters go? As Awad states, Egypt has dealt with this scenario already. But in the ongoing effort to regain stability, it would be the oddest of consequences that peace in Syria might throw Egypt off kilter again.
It is sad to pray that a tragedy will have resulted from negligence. It is sad to pray about negligence that helped produce a tragedy.
In the space of a week, God, Egypt witnessed both. May the former not have long term consequence. May the latter bring long term change.
A Russian tourist plane crashed in the Sinai on its return trip home. Scores are dead, including children, with rescue operations ongoing. Initial reports suggest technical problems with the airplane.
But the crash occurred near the focal point of Egypt’s terrorist activity. Soon it will be clear, but God, may all have been a tragic accident.
Either way, God, comfort the families. Rescue those still alive. And for the sake of Egypt and her economy, may vital Russian tourism not be scared away.
Only a few days earlier exceptional floods swept through the city of Alexandria. Torrential rainfall overwhelmed a drainage system ill equipped and unaccustomed. The governor resigned, though he had inquired about capabilities in advance. Several people died, damage is extensive.
God, comfort the families. But hold responsible the officials high and low who failed in due diligence. May this tragedy result in a city stronger in infrastructure. May it result in a nation unwilling to sweep problems under the rug.
And God, may it not take tragedy to spur Egypt to action. Grant Egypt stability, but lift her from lethargy.
As people fail to vote and candidates fail to inspire, instill in Egyptians a sense of deep personal responsibility. May they engender reform to hold the rest accountable.
And where there is only accident, God, help Egypt to rally. Spare her further suffering and may better days come.
Jayson Casper 