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Excerpts

Is a Third of the Sinai Lost?

Last week I offered excerpts from a report describing the amateur terrorism campaigns in the Nile Delta. Here are excerpts about the professionals, via Reuters:

In a rare visit to eight villages in Northern Sinai last week, a Reuters reporter saw widespread destruction caused by army operations, but also found evidence that a few hundred militants are successfully playing a cat-and-mouse game with the Arab world’s biggest army and are nowhere near defeat. It is increasingly difficult for foreign correspondents to openly enter conflict zones in the Sinai.

Residents say the militants – a mix of Egyptian Islamists, foreign fighters and disgruntled youth – have seized control of about a third of the villages in the region and are now taking their fight closer to Cairo.

The article obtain testimony from an anonymous militant revealing their local strategy:

“At the start of the fighting we used to hide in mountains but now we are present in the villages among residents, because it is safer there,” he said. “When we were in the mountains it was easy for the army to strike us with helicopters. But as long as we are with the people it is hard to reach us.”

S.A. said that he and his fellow fighters use simple home-made bombs such as jam jars stuffed with dynamite. The devices are hidden in olive trees or on the side of road, with desert sand covering detonation cords. He said the militants wait on hilltops for military convoys to pass and then detonate their bombs by remote control, using cellphone identification cards.

“We use cooking cylinders and water jugs and we will pack them with explosives, and connect them to timers and a SIM card and we plant them on roads we know are used by the army,” said S.A.

The threat of roadside bombs has prompted the army to cut mobile phone networks and the Internet during daylight hours when military vehicles move around.

Local residents describe how militants infiltrate, and the response it sometimes brings from the army:

Ahmed Abu Gerida, who lives in al-Bars village, said militants sometimes hide in civilians’ houses to avoid detection. “They hang up women’s clothes, including bras and underwear, because they know the army will hesitate to approach Bedouin women,” he said. “One time soldiers entered one of these homes and found a storage place for explosives and blew up the house.”

Air strikes, launched almost daily since Mursi’s fall, have hammered villages like al-Lafitaat, where all 12 single-storey cement houses have been destroyed or heavily damaged over the past few months. Some were reduced to a few beams, while others were burnt out, their ceilings collapsed. Residents fled, leaving behind a handful of sheep.

One woman named Ni’imaa stood next to the remnants of her house with her two children, after returning a few days earlier to retrieve her belongings. She collected a pillow, a mattress, some dishes and a small stove and placed them in a pick-up truck. She said the army killed her husband, who she said was not a militant, four months ago.

These poor local people, who feel frustratingly paralyzed:

Even residents who are opposed to militants say they are scared to cooperate with the army, which has appealed for tips to find the fighters.

Sheikh Hassan Khalaf, who heads the Sawarka tribe in Sinai, said 35 Sinai residents who gave the army information on militants had been shot dead in the past three months. The army confirmed the shooting, but not the numbers involved.

Many people feel trapped between both sides.

“We are between two fires. If we report the terrorists to the army, the militants will kill us the next day,” said Subayha, a Bedouin who said that she and her children struggle to sleep because of army shelling in her village of al-Mahdiya. For safety, they sometimes sleep outside the gates of a building that houses international peacekeepers, she says.

“If we remain silent the army considers us allies of the terrorists and can start attacking our villages,” said Subayha.

And here are the offerings on responsibility:

Khalaf, the Sawarka tribal leader, said he saw Mohamed al-Zawahri, the brother of al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawihri, in a presidential car. Sinai police were not allowed to approach the convoys or meetings, said Khalaf.

Senior Muslim Brotherhood official Mohamed Saleh told Reuters: “There is no evidence of this. It is all lies spread in an attempt to hurt the reputation of the Muslim Brotherhood. We have never associated in our history with any groups that hurt Egypt.”

Wael Haddara, a senior adviser to Mursi while he was president, said Mursi’s public “efforts to reach out to bona fide tribal elders and leaders” might now be “cast as a meeting with terrorists”. The Brotherhood has said it released prisoners when it was in power because the prisoners had been unfairly tried or had served their sentences.

At the same time, senior Brotherhood leader Mohamed el-Beltagy said last year after Mursi’s fall that the violence in the Sinai would stop if the army reversed what the Muslim Brotherhood calls a coup.

Zawahiri is a Salafi-Jihadi, of whom I wrote these reports, and two other previously written pieces will be posted later. From the other side, here is a report I wrote from a security source with deep experience in the Sinai.

From what I understand, Morsi did release militants, but the military council released more after the revolution but before Morsi’s presidency. Many had served their full sentence and were being held on continuing security grounds.

And additionally, Morsi did either conduct or permit several delegations out outreach to the Sinai. The point was to change the security-solution-outlook that traditionally ruled the area, into one of dialogue and reconciliation, convincing residents to give up violence on a religious basis. Perhaps other more sinister conversations took place, but the details are lost amid the vagaries of Sinai, and of Egypt in general.

But regardless, if Reuters summarized correctly, the situation is not encouraging, especially for residents. Does anyone have any solutions to propose?

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Arab West Report Middle East Published Articles

A Security Source Speaks on the Sinai

Sinai_Terrorist

From my recent article at Arab West Report, describing an interview with a former security officer in the Sinai, who wished to remain anonymous. In light of the current accusations leveled against the Muslim Brotherhood, his comments, issued in May 2013, are very pertinent:

These known political figures, including leading Salafi-Jihadis such as ‘Adil Shahātah and Ahmad ‘Ashūsh, are currently playing a political role and not in charge of the operations on the ground, he said. But they still indirectly administer their policies and act as a go-between for the jihadists and non-violent political Islamist groups, and even the Mursī administration.

The Islamists, the advisor says, have divided up roles between themselves – this one to be violent, this one to be political – and having multiple entities helps fill the political space. The Muslim Brotherhood in particular is the head, and their deputy supreme guide Khairat al-Shātir is one of the chief beneficiaries of the tunnel economy. They have three main uses for Salafi and jihadist entities.

The first is to win elections. In keeping a unity among real groups that do compete with each other, they ensure better results at the ballot box. The second use is as a threat for their competition, liberal and secular minded Egyptians who might find it necessary to cooperate with a ‘moderate’ Muslim Brotherhood to ensure they do not side publicly with the more extremist Salafis. The third use is similar, but aimed at the West. By being in league with jihadist elements, the Muslim Brotherhood can demonstrate they are the only ones capable of deterring their violence.

And while the military is currently destroying the aforementioned tunnels, here is how the state used to deal with them:

But if Bedouins were frozen out of official state business, they thrived in the unofficial business of the tunnel system to Gaza. The advisor numbered tunnel totals around 1200, and at their height during the 2008-09 Operation Cast Lead a single tunnel could earn up to one million US dollars per day. The tunnel could be rented for one hour at a cost of $20,000 US, with administrative taxes taken on the other side by Hamas.

Before the revolution, Egypt used the tunnels as a foreign policy tool. Whether for pressure on Israel or Gaza, or indirectly on Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar via their Sinai proxies, the flow of goods into Gaza could be variously eased or restricted. The nature of goods, also, could serve the state’s unofficial international policies. Technically, the Bedouins ran the tunnels, for all crossed through their land. But the government watched, which also provided an additional incentive for the tribes to cooperate.

The article also describes the demographic features of the Sinai and estimates the violent, jihadist elements. But given the severity of current political accusations, two lines from the conclusion are vital:

In reference to the information therein he assured its veracity. ‘This is not analysis,’ he said, ‘it is intelligence.’

Arab-West Report has not verified his assertions.

Please click here to read the full article at Arab West Report.

Categories
Prayers

Friday Prayers for Egypt: Doctors, Deaths, and Dreams

Flag Cross Quran

God,

Every day Egypt steps closer to the referendum on a constitution, which if passed will validate the roadmap to restore democracy established by the military. And every week supporters of Morsi march against the new order, often met with tear gas, minor clashes, and subsequent arrests.

It has become a normal pattern, but this week three diverse events highlight something different.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s dominance of the Doctors’ Syndicate came to an end. Although protesting the overall difficulties their wing has faced, they admit being outvoted and cede control of the board for the first time in decades. A female Copt was elected as secretary-general.

Two clashes, meanwhile, resulted in an ugly loss of life. The ongoing violent conflict in Sinai resulted in the killing of a soldier whose body was paraded through the streets by local jihadists. And in the Delta a taxi driver drove into a pro-Morsi protest, injuring a woman, and was pulled from his vehicle and killed by the mob.

A news leak, additionally, released an audio recording allegedly of the military head Gen. Sisi describing his dreams from years earlier in which he knew he would one day be president of the republic. Some believe the leak was meant to discredit him as of superstitious ambition; others believe it will help his standing with ordinary people.

God, within the normal pattern, give Egypt stability, and give protestors peace. As each seems to threaten the other, decide between them by what is right. If this is to be through the vote of the people, protect the referendum and make its process and results fully transparent.

For the doctors, God, make smooth the leadership transition. Help the new opposition to be critically supportive, and the new heads to be magnanimously effective. Bless both their efforts in charity and practice, that Egypt might enjoy a better future in health care.

But conflict, God, can reduce the humanity of the opponent. Save Egypt from this path, where deaths are celebrated and easily provoked. May the determination of protestors not slip into rage; may the crimes in the Sinai be met with justice and peace. Protect the state, and protect the people. May each reinforce the other.

For it appears the current symbolic strength of the state is having dreams. Are they of you, God, or of his ambition? Along with the leak, do they mean to hurt him, or help? Are they innocent, or a manipulation? God, bless Gen. Sisi, the interim president, and all who are currently running the state. Give them wisdom to govern well. But give a collective wisdom to all concerning his possible candidacy. Speak to his conscience and speak to the nation. Bring good governance to Egypt, God, through both man and system.

For Egypt is in great need of healing. Many have died, and others are falling. May the nation’s dreams not perish alongside.

Amen.

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Prayers

Friday Prayers for Egypt: Foreign Complications

Flag Cross Quran 

God,

Egypt’s problems are so big, other nations are getting involved. May their help be helpful.

Early indications, however, are mostly complicating. A number of foreign envoys met with government and Islamist leaders, supposedly to work out a compromise solution to the political crisis. None was reached and the sit-ins in support of Morsi continue, but each had differing perceptions of blame. The US, in particular, had mixed messages. The administration accepted Morsi’s removal as a protection of democracy and prevention of civil war, while a prominent senator visited and labeled it an out-and-out coup.

Good arguments can support either conclusion, but who makes the call? Encouraged by foreign intervention, the Brotherhood hardens its positions and continues the impasse. Understandably distrustful of government assurances of a safe exit if they disband and go home, local media and security sources reinforce the message of a zero sum game. Did foreign envoys buy time for credible negotiations, or stall a necessary resolution? Bless them, though, for trying.

Blessing is trickier to offer on the other front of foreign complications. An explosion occurred in the Sinai killing several militants, and all speculation immediately posited an Israeli drone. The Egyptian military denied foreign involvement, but a Sinai based terrorist group says they were hit in a joint Egypt-Israel action while planning a rocket launch across borders.

God, Egypt has enough problems. Give wisdom to her friends to know if they are helping or hurting.

But in the end, God, find Egyptian solutions to Egyptian problems. Even if others can come alongside, may this political crisis conclude in greater consensus for all.

Give Egypt peace on her borders, God. Israel is so complicating to Egyptian politics the propaganda will ramp up a hundredfold. Propaganda never helps consensus. Protect Israeli security, help the police and military clamp down on lawlessness, but save Egypt from both the horror and manipulation of terror.

God, give wisdom to the Brotherhood. Help them to hold on to what is right while discovering their wrongs. Grant them the ability to extricate themselves from this crisis, and mold them into that which is good for all of Egypt.

God, give wisdom to the government. Help them to pursue justice transparently and use this historical moment to find a grand solution for Egyptian ideological diversity. Grant them the ability to deftly respond to pressure with necessary political acumen.

God, make both humble. Purge all groups of their power-hungry manipulators, so that those who remain will serve Egypt with a pure heart. Reveal this to the people, and place sovereignty in their hands.

And for all outsiders who wish to help, God, make them honest as well. Allow Egypt to be a domestic mess for as long as necessary while as short as possible. But prevent foreigners from adding complications, God. Stability is greatly needed.

Amen.

 

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Personal

Men on Motorcycles

Men on Motorcycles

From the New Yorker, providing an account of the dawn killings between the military and pro-Morsi protestors:

Fifty-one dead at dawn. A doctor who said he preferred not to give his name lives in an apartment building that overlooks the Republican Guard barracks in Cairo. He told me he woke for the dawn prayer before 4 A.M. Shortly afterward, he heard gunfire and went onto his neighbor’s balcony for a better view.

“I saw that the Army retreated about ten metres and began to fire tear-gas cannisters, about ten or fifteen of them,” he said. “I couldn’t see if the other side [the protesters] was shooting, but I heard people through megaphones encouraging jihad. Then I saw four to six motorcycles coming from the direction of the Rabaa intersection to the Republican Guard barracks. Some people were still praying, some were not, because the dawn prayer had finished by then. The men on the motorcycles were all masked, and it was hard to see them through the dark and the tear-gas smoke, but they seemed to be shooting, they were coming from behind the protesters, so they were shooting toward the protesters and the Army. Then the Army started firing. And the protestors were firing. I saw firing from both sides.” As for details, though—what they were firing, whether it was one or two protesters or something more organized—he said that it was dark and that he couldn’t exactly tell.

Men on motorcycles. It is a maddening detail, constantly repeated over the past two and a half years. It has parallels even in the January 25 incidents of snipers firing into Tahrir Square. Back then it was widely suspected to be the police, but to this day no one knows – as no one has been convicted.

If it was the police trying to disperse the crowds, it was a woefully unsuccessful strategy. If anything, the crowds increased and the nation turned against the government. The result, coupled with continual suspicion against the Muslim Brotherhood, made people argue the opposite: Snipers were with Hamas, who acted on behalf of the Brotherhood to help the revolution succeed. Here and there since then, the theory goes, Hamas reappeared to do the dirty work.

Liberal revolutionary activists I know hate this theory, as they believe it is old regime propaganda to let themselves off the hook. Even so, the commission which studied post-revolutionary transgressions on the part of the military – also often assumed to be old regime partial – gave its report to President Morsi, who let it sit on his desk. Did he hold it as leverage to use against the army? Leaked pages suggested their wrongdoing. Or did he hold it because Hamas was implicated therein? To this day – though the day is still early – we do not know.

What is in the report? And who rode the motorcycles? Was it Muslim Brotherhood sponsored, seeking to provoke the army and paint them as killing innocent civilian protestors? Was it the army itself, raising a false flag against the Brotherhood to paint them as extremists and justify jailing their leaders? Was it jihadists seeking to create chaos? Was it foreign powers wishing to do the same? Every conspiracy floats well in a sea of obscurity; they sink where transparent systems are in place.

So is Egypt trying to build one, or protect the old sea of mud? To close, here is the explanation offered  by a friend:

First: MB ignored completely the Egyptian people who asked Morsi to leave as if they are just ghosts. They want to put in equation: MB and the military. It had been always the MB strategy: We (the civil state) vs. the army (military regime) and always neglected the Egyptian people as if there is a vacuum outside these two entities.

Second: Ignoring the Egyptian people we reach this conclusion: the army toppled Morsy and his regime.

Third: Reaching this result we get a new equation: Fighting the army is a national and religious duty.

Fourth: MB international mass media (CNN, Jazira and I would say Euro news) must confirm this equation putting the Egyptian army at the same ignoble level as the Syrian army.

Fifth: This will bring us to the big game in Sinai. The big battle against this “dirty” army will be deployed in Sinai.

Beltagui threatened that violence in Sinai will continue in case Morsy will not return.

It means that if you will not give us Egypt again we will get Sinai and establish our Emirate with the help of Hamas and all jihadists. Something is better than nothing.

Natanayahu asked all Israel citizens to leave Sinai immediately.

The Egyptian army sent military reinforcements to Gaza borders.

Another link

Many attacks against el Arish security forces (the last point that must be reached by Hamas militias to get their alternative homeland)

A priest assassinated in el Arish.

It seems that Russia supports the Egyptian army with a “military satellite” to track the militias in Sinai.

Most probably the scenario they want to implement is to establish an Egyptian sub-state on the area Gaza/Arish under Morsi’s legitimacy (the legitimate president of Egypt). This State will be blessed by Israel and US.

Most probably, this is the reason why US don’t want to announce officially if what happened in Egypt is or is not a coup. They are keeping this card to the last moment.

It was not in US “best interests” to decide yet whether the armed overthrow of the country’s elected president amounted to a coup or not.

If Hamas will get this area (Gaza/Arist) and will establish their new State, US will announce that 30th of January had been a coup. If Hamas and all other Jihadists will fail, US will announce that it was not a coup.

Suez Canal

On the other side, the army deployed military forces in Suez, Ismailia, Port Said and Suez Canal is under strict control.

Closing Suez Canal would be an excellent argument to allow international forces to occupy this vital passage. In this case, the Egyptian army will have problems to go to Sinai and will help the Jihadists to do whatever they want.

This is my reading of the events. I hope that I am wrong. No doubt that the best thing to do to stop this “crescendo” is to announce clearly, loudly and officially that 30th of June had not been a coup but the revolution of a people who are looking for their freedom.

Judge for yourself, but to reach a place of stability, Egypt needs to know who rode the motorcycles.

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Prayers

Friday Prayers for Egypt: Release

Flag Cross Quran

God,

With great relief and little wrangling, the abducted security personnel in Sinai were released this week. The president, political parties, and military all celebrated their peaceful transfer through the intervention of tribal chiefs in the area. No negotiation, no bloodshed – all celebrated a successful resolution.

Successful, that is, with two lingering uncertainties: No justice, no information. Officials declared the identities of the kidnappers are known but will not be released until a more appropriate time. And of the details in the media leading up to the release, officials admitted they used misinformation in order to confuse the criminals.

All this is fair enough, God. Thanks are to you for their release, accomplished through men and their necessary wiles. But amid the many accusations and conspiracies which surround Sinai, God, Egyptians long for clarity in all public affairs.

Are the president’s Islamist allies linked with extremists in the Sinai? Did they engineer the kidnapping and subsequent release to boost the president’s popularity or embarrass the army? Did the military and intelligence apparatus play the same role in order to create a crisis for the president and demonstrate their own indispensability? Are the two in cahoots to forge a new reality in the Sinai away from the old heavy hand of the police state and tribal manipulations? Or, was it just a random act of disaffected individuals? All these questions circulate.

They are a product of Egypt’s polarization and instability, God. Ease these issues and perhaps clarity can come.

But both now and then, God, give Egypt a new culture of transparency. Make public officials accountable to the people. Secure the release of information. Protect national security and the public order, but keep the limitations of freedom to the absolute minimum.

A little while ago a draft law for freedom of information was prepared, meeting with contradictory responses. Some hailed it as a new dawn for society; others claimed it couched draconian measures in liberal pronouncements.

God, deal with the text of any new law and the hearts of those who will implement it. May Egyptians know what goes on behind the scenes of their government, and may these scenes become clean and transparent.

God, deal with the Sinai in justice and development. Bring criminals to trial, extremists to repentance, and Bedouins to citizenship. May those responsible for the kidnapping be prosecuted openly, but may the region not suffer their crimes. Rather, integrate Egypt’s peoples together, and may the prosperity of your blessing be shared by all.

As you released the abducted from captivity, God, release Egypt from its captivity of unknowing. Perhaps you are enveloped in this cloud by nature of your being, but free the people and nation from the bonds of its yoke.

May they know both themselves and their maker. Release them, and in this knowledge make them free.

Amen.

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Prayers

Friday Prayers for Egypt: Sinai, Rebellion

Flag Cross Quran

God,

Egypt is not quite rumbling again; bubbling is more like it, though the bubbles can grow bigger. Security apprehended alleged terrorists plotting to blow up the US and French embassies, while their colleagues in the Sinai abduct seven security officers.

In Cairo a small protest in Tahrir threatens a creative escalation. The ‘rebellion’ campaign is collecting signatures to demand the departure of President Morsi. The have announced two million so far; they aim for fifteen – more than the total ballots cast in Morsi’s favor – by June 30, the day he assumed office. On that date they will return in mass to the presidential palace.

Many Islamists complain there is no legal legitimacy to their action. Of course they are right, but there was no legality to the demonstrations which deposed Mubarak either. It is the symbolism which is important – if they can get the numbers.

Terrorists, though, do not need numbers. They need space, materials, and determination alone. Few dispute their illegality, but along similar lines, the symbolism is important.

God, amid Egypt’s many problems, few prayers have been necessary concerning terrorism. For this thanks is necessary; terrorism has been a constant in Syria, with appearances in Tunisia and Libya as well. For all deserved criticism of the security void there has been vigilance on this front. May it continue; free the abducted personnel and give the authorities wisdom and perseverance in the Sinai.

And of rebellion? Surely the name is not that pleasing, God. Is the campaign? Is it honest? Does it use the memory and practice of demonstrations past simply for political pressure? Or is the real end game to remove the popularly elected leader? If so, by what mechanism?

It is good to have popular means of accountability and activism, but it is troublesome many feel this is the only avenue for political participation. Frustrations are high and shared ideals are broken amid widespread polarization. But does Egypt need another uprising? Can it stomach one?

God, you know what is behind the scenes, if anything. But may those putting their signatures to paper be represented well. May the opposition be properly empowered. May the president fulfill the demands of the people. May the civil political arena widen.

Give patience and determination to the ‘rebels’, God; urgency and flexibility to the president.

Give constriction and repentance to the terrorists, God; space and vision to the president.

For Egypt, God, give all of the above, merged together in sovereignty, prosperity, and peace. May the bubbles turn out beautiful.

Amen.

 

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Personal

Refuting a Rogue Call to Kill the Israeli Ambassador to Egypt

Dr. Sallah Sultan

The Middle East Media Research Institute highlighted on August 29 a video clip originally aired on August 26, in which Dr. Sallah Sultan, founder of the American Center for Islamic Research in Ohio, called for the death of the Israeli ambassador to Egypt. His call came in response to wide-scale Egyptian protests following an Israeli raid on militants in the Sinai Peninsula, in which five Egyptian officers were killed. While the protests demanded the ruling Egyptian military council to expel the ambassador, Dr. Sultan went further:

As someone who has studied Islamic law, specializing in Islamic jurisprudence, I am calling to kill the [Israeli] ambassador, not just expel him. Our sons were killed in our country, on our land, and our sons are being killed in Gaza by an occupying enemy. Brothers and sisters, the genuine rulings of Islamic law can no longer be silenced. I am prepared to confront any Islamic scholar who says otherwise.

The link to the MEMRI report can be accessed here.

I spoke with Dr. Abd al-Mu‘ti Bayyumi, member of the Islamic Research Academy at the Azhar. While Dr. Bayyumi did not recognize the name of Dr. Sultan, he expressed shock at the statement, which he declared demonstrated Dr. Sultan was not a proper Islamic scholar.

Bayyumi stated that the Israel ambassador resides legally in Egypt on the basis of a diplomatic visa, which was granted by the Egyptian government. In sharia law this represents ‘aqd al-aman, or a compact of security, which guarantees safety to the beneficiary. By calling for the violation of this compact through killing the ambassador, Dr. Bayyumi stated Sultan’s words were not a legal ruling, but backwardness.

Bayyumi believed the Egyptian government must study the issue of what took place on the Israeli border, and then take appropriate steps based on its findings. To begin, there should be a joint investigation between the two nations. If it is found that the Israeli soldiers killed the Egyptian officers accidentally, Bayyumi stated sharia law proscribes each victim be compensated the equivalent of 4 ¼ kilogram of pure gold. If it is found the officers were killed deliberately, then Egypt must take steps commensurate with the assault on its dignity.

Inasmuch as an official investigation has not yet been conducted, Bayyumi stated that any number of political outcomes are possible. Perhaps the ambassador could be expelled, or the Egyptian ambassador to Tel Aviv could be withdrawn. It would also do well for the two nations to take another look at the Camp David treaty to amend it so as to provide better security for both Egypt and Israel. He stressed, however, that this was his opinion, and that this was a political matter and not one of Islamic jurisprudence.